May 1-3

Log in

Abstract Details

files Add files

status:file name:submitted:by:
approvediran__annapolis__1may2017__fvh_.pdf2017-05-12 16:29:59Frank von HIppel

Abstracts

Author: Frank N von HIppel
Requested Type: Pre-Selected Invited
Submitted: 2017-01-16 18:41:20

Co-authors:

Contact Info:
Princeton University
3 University Way
Princeton Jct., New Jersey   08550
USA

Abstract Text:
The international crisis over Iran’s nuclear program began in 2002 when it became public that Iran, a non-weapon-state party to the Nonproliferation Treaty, had, without informing the IAEA, begun building a uranium enrichment plant and a heavy water reactor, both potential routes to a nuclear weapon. During 2003-2005, Iran negotiated with France, Germany and the UK over constraints on this program to reassure the West of its peaceful purpose but the Bush Administration was unwilling to accept anything but a zero solution, which was unacceptable to Iran’s Supreme Leader. During 2005-2013, a harder-line Iranian administration was in power and the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program escalated, almost resulting in an Israeli preemptive attack on Iran’s under-construction nuclear facilities. Beginning in 2013, there were administrations willing to compromise in both Teheran and Washington and a nuclear deal was negotiated under which Iran agreed to a strictly monitored program, much reduced in scope, for more than a decade in return for a lifting of nuclear-related sanctions. The agreement between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) went into force on 16 January 2016. During the first year, Iran complied scrupulously with its commitments but complained that non-U.S. businesses interested in investing in Iran were unwilling to do so because of fear that the U.S. might re-impose its bar on the use of U.S. dollars as the universal intermediate currency when foreign currencies are converted. In fact, before the U.S. 2016 election, both the Republican majority in Congress and the incoming Trump Administration were fiercely critical of the Iran Nuclear Deal. Their primary specific complaint appears to have been that its constraints will begin to expire after ten years. Supporters of the deal counter that it bought ten years to devise a longer-term solution. By the time this talk is given, we should know more.

Comments: